如何使用技術指標投注足球亞洲盤

本頁提供一個名為賠率追蹤器的工具,其用處就是把定時從馬會網頁下載的賠率比較往蹟而得出一些基本數字及技術指標。早前已講解總入球的計算方法,從賠率的反向工程 (數學上即是找出最優化的總入球參數) 的總入球數字就是引申入球,意義就是明白市場及莊家對一場足球比場的總入球預期數字。今次筆者會解釋如何用類似的方法運用引申球差,再以引申球差計出相對強弱以制定投注策略。

預期球差、引申球差、實質球差

早前我們以單一Poisson分佈計出總入球的概率 ,除了總入球之外,球差是一場足球比賽第二重要的概念,就是兩隊入球的預期值的相差。如果主隊及客隊入球的預期值分別是1.8及1.2,預期總入球則會是1.8+1.2=3.0,球差會是1.8-1.2=0.6,統計上主隊會佔有 0.6 球的優勢,而且預計是一場高入球的賽事,0-0的概率則是主客兩個零進球的概率相乘0.16530 x 0.30119 = 0.0497867。而引申球差就是從賠 率反映出來的球差,如果實質球場結果為4比2,實質球差就2,比預期球差高出1.4,即是主隊比預期為好。簡言而之:

球差是兩隊入球的預期值的相差 ,引申入球就是從賠率反映出來的球差參數,實質球差就是球賽結果的主客入球相差。

相對強弱

相對強弱類似於股票的移動平均線,能看出一隊球隊在特定的時間內的實質成績比預期的賽果平均地高出多少球。如下圖的英超球隊般尼(Burnley),365日、180日及90日的相對強弱都是全線正數,比預期賽果都高出0.3球,如果轉化成投注策略,則應着重投注所有英超有關的般尼的選項,市場似乎暫時也未能反映到般尼的真正強勢。

平均注碼投注般尼的亞洲盤

2019-08-10 般尼對修咸頓 3-0 主+0 1.86 中一注 +0.86
2019-08-17 阿仙奴對般尼 2-1 客+1.25 2.08 中半注 +0.54
2019-08-25 狼隊對般尼 1-1 客+0.75 1.84 中一注 +0.84
2019-09-01 般尼對利物浦 0-3 主+1.25 2.17 輸一注 -1.00
2019-09-14 白禮頓對般尼 1-1 客+0.25 2.00 中半注 +0.5
2019-09-21 般尼對諾域治 2-0 主-0.25 1.72 中一注 +0.72
2019-09-28 阿士東維拉對般尼 2-2 客+0.25 1.86 中半注 +0.43
2019-10-05 般尼對愛華頓 1-0 主+0.25 1.79 中一注 +0.79
2019-10-19 李斯特城對般尼 2-1 客-1.00 2.09 和 0.00
2019-10-27 般尼對車路士 2-4 主+0.75 2.00 輸一注 -1.00
2019-11-02 鍚菲聯對般尼 3-0 客+0.25 1.97 輸一注 -1.00
2019-11-09 般尼對韋斯咸 3-0 主-0.25 1.89 中一注 +0.89
2019-11-09 屈福特對般尼 0-3 客+0.25 1.93 中一注 +0.93
2019-11-30 般尼斯水晶宮 0-2 主-0.25 1.76 輸一注 -1.00
2019-12-04 般尼對曼城 1-4 主+1.75 2.05 輸一注 -1.00
2019-12-08 熱刺對般尼 5-0 主+1.25 1.91 輸一注 -1.00

總共投注16次,回報為0.5注,回報達到3.1%。 況且如果避開投注強勢球隊(如利物浦、曼城、鍚菲聯及剛轉領隊的熱刺),回報可以在10%以上。 但要注意,般尼已呈現轉勢,投注者可能要再找出新的強勢球隊。

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