捕足馬會鬼盤

平日投注在足球為樂,就當做個善事。然而這個遊戲引人入勝之處是考眼光,是你的好還是對面的莊家操盤手好呢?

坊間有所謂「鬼盤」之說,「鬼盤」沒明確定義,較為普遍的說法就是大熱反而受讓,即是說主客和的賠率中較低的反而受讓。近期在歐霸盃就有一個明顯例子:

愛華頓取勝的賠率比阿波羅利馬素的高,但是讓球主客和的波盤還是主隊受讓一球,較直觀的想法就是操盤手覺得要吸引賭客購買阿波羅利馬素的受讓盤,讓錢都走向讓球主客和的主,因為客隊讓球,只入一球也未夠,直接打擊賭客的「入市意欲」,另一方面,莊家可能純粹因為平衡賭盤的金額,是單純的避險行動。

以這場球賽而言,已出局的阿波羅利馬素與愛華頓都沒有爭勝的原動力,而愛華頓的領隊更去了做手術,從陣容來講也是放上二線球員,成為冷門也尚算合理。然而只是出動英超二線成員的愛華頓,基本實力也比來自塞浦路斯的對手高兩三班,這個基本因素可能就是操盤開出「鬼盤」的原因。

最後操盤手沒有錯,愛華頓大勝三比零,如果在開賽前投注客隊賠率為3.7倍,讓球主客和客隊為7.75倍。

說到底,只看一場比賽都只是個別事件。我們來分析數據,從馬會2016年7月10日到2017年12月1日17000場比賽中,當中有404場是「鬼盤」。我們用R軟件去分析:

有一場比賽取消,當主隊受讓主客和主隊勝率為38.1%;當客隊受讓主客和客隊勝率為39.8%。

策略1:主客和買對家

平均成本投注客隊147次,主隊256次,投注客隊基本上打成平手,而投注主隊則大蝕48.4% ,然而此策略還比主客和買熱門優勝(不作詳述)。

策略2:讓球主客和買熱門

讓球主客和的熱門客隊已顯示為正數,策略2整體上還倒輸3.33% 。如果以莊家超過10%的抽水(果汁)來講,已經是不錯。

策略3:亞洲讓球盤買對家

這個策略給予1.4%回報,因為這類亞洲盤的抽水比較少,作為賭客也會較容易以適當的策略取勝。

捕足馬會鬼盤” 有3,632條評論

  1. Thank you, I’ve just been looking for information approximately
    this topic for a while and yours is the greatest I have came upon so far.
    But, what concerning the conclusion? Are you positive in regards to
    the source?

  2. Hi would you mind sharing which blog platform you’re using?
    I’m looking to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a tough time making
    a decision between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal.
    The reason I ask is because your layout seems different then most blogs and
    I’m looking for something completely unique.
    P.S Sorry for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

  3. Cbd oil that works 2020
    What i do not realize is in reality how you’re not really a lot more well-liked
    than you might be now. You are so intelligent.
    You recognize thus significantly when it comes to
    this topic, made me in my opinion imagine it
    from so many various angles. Its like men and women don’t seem
    to be interested unless it’s one thing to accomplish with Lady gaga!
    Your personal stuffs outstanding. At all
    times care for it up! best rated cbd oil
    http://t.co/4kPhN7Ek0L cbd oil that works 2020 http://t.co/4kPhN7Ek0L

  4. I like the valuable info you provide in your articles.
    I will bookmark your weblog and check again here frequently.
    I’m quite sure I will learn lots of new stuff right here! Good luck
    for the next!

  5. You made some good points there. I looked on the internet to find
    out more about the issue and found most people will go along with your views on this website.

  6. I believe everything published made a bunch of sense. However,
    what about this? suppose you composed a catchier post title?
    I am not suggesting your content is not solid, but suppose you added something to maybe grab
    people’s attention? I mean 捕足馬會鬼盤 – 賠率遊蹤 is a
    little plain. You should peek at Yahoo’s home page and see how
    they create article headlines to grab viewers to open the
    links. You might add a video or a related pic or two to get people excited about everything’ve written. Just my opinion, it might bring your posts a little livelier.

  7. I’m now not certain where you’re getting your info, however great topic.

    I needs to spend some time studying more or understanding more.

    Thank you for fantastic info I was on the lookout for this info for my mission.

  8. I do believe all the concepts you have offered to your post.
    They are really convincing and will definitely work. Still, the posts are very brief for
    starters. May just you please lengthen them a bit from subsequent time?

    Thanks for the post.

  9. Знаете ли вы?
    Во время немецкой оккупации Украины радио на украинском языке вещало из Саратова и Москвы.
    Убийца с руками-клешнями избежал тюрьмы, но позже сам был убит.
    Старейшую в России организацию реставраторов велено было выселить и уплотнить.
    Плата за проезд в последний путь у древних была скорее символической.
    Жизненный путь абсолютного большинства звёзд известен заранее.

    http://www.arbeca.net/

  10. Hello! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any issues
    with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing a few months of hard work due to no backup.
    Do you have any solutions to stop hackers?

  11. You can definitely see your skills within the work you write.
    The arena hopes for even more passionate writers like you who aren’t afraid to say how they believe.
    All the time follow your heart.

  12. Hi there, just became alert to your blog through Google,
    and found that it’s really informative. I am going to watch out for brussels.
    I will be grateful if you continue this in future.

    A lot of people will be benefited from your writing.
    Cheers!

  13. Very good site you have here but I was wanting to know if you knew
    of any community forums that cover the same topics talked about here?
    I’d really like to be a part of group where I can get suggestions from other experienced people that share the
    same interest. If you have any recommendations, please let me know.
    Thanks a lot!

  14. I’m amazed, I have to admit. Rarely do I come across a blog that’s both equally educative and interesting, and without a doubt, you have hit the nail on the head.

    The problem is an issue that not enough people are speaking intelligently about.
    I’m very happy that I stumbled across this
    during my hunt for something regarding this.

  15. Hi! Quick question that’s totally off topic. Do
    you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My blog looks weird when viewing from my iphone4.
    I’m trying to find a theme or plugin that might
    be able to resolve this problem. If you have any recommendations,
    please share. Appreciate it!

  16. I’ve been exploring for a bit for any high quality articles or weblog posts in this sort of area .
    Exploring in Yahoo I at last stumbled upon this web
    site. Reading this info So i’m glad to convey that I’ve an incredibly just right uncanny feeling I
    discovered just what I needed. I such a lot for sure will make
    sure to do not overlook this site and give it a look on a relentless
    basis.

  17. Hello there! This article couldn’t be written much better!
    Going through this article reminds me of my previous roommate!
    He constantly kept preaching about this. I am going to
    send this information to him. Pretty sure he’ll have a very good
    read. Many thanks for sharing!

  18. Знаете ли вы?
    Потомок наполеоновского генерала стал Героем Советского Союза.
    Китай реализует в Пакистане собственный План Маршалла.
    На идеологию национал-социализма оказали влияние русские эмигранты.
    Врач на карантине спел созданную для фильма песню Высоцкого «Давно смолкли залпы орудий».
    В Чехословакии и СССР был свой «поцелуй победы».

    фонбет регистрация без карты
    бк париматч регистрация
    пари матчи букмекерская контора россия

  19. Woah! I’m really digging the template/theme of this blog.
    It’s simple, yet effective. A lot of times it’s very difficult to get that 「perfect balance」 between superb usability and visual appearance.
    I must say you’ve done a fantastic job with this. Also, the blog loads very quick for me on Opera.
    Excellent Blog!

  20. You are so awesome! I do not believe I’ve truly read something like that before.
    So nice to find somebody with some genuine thoughts on this
    subject matter. Seriously.. thank you for starting this up.

    This web site is something that’s needed on the web, someone with a little originality!

  21. Pretty section of content. I just stumbled upon your blog and
    in accession capital to assert that I get in fact enjoyed account your blog posts.
    Any way I’ll be subscribing to your augment and even I achievement you access
    consistently fast.

  22. My brother suggested I might like this web site. He was entirely right.
    This post actually made my day. You cann’t imagine just how much time I had
    spent for this information! Thanks!

  23. I’m truly enjoying the design and layout of your blog.

    It’s a very easy on the eyes which makes it much more pleasant for me to come here and visit more often. Did you hire out a developer to create your theme?
    Outstanding work! 31muvXS cheap flights

  24. This is the right blog for everyone who hopes to find out about this topic.
    You know so much its almost hard to argue
    with you (not that I really will need to…HaHa).
    You certainly put a fresh spin on a subject which has been written about for years.
    Excellent stuff, just wonderful! 2CSYEon cheap flights

  25. Hello there! I could have sworn I’ve been to this site
    before but after reading through some of the post I realized it’s new to me.
    Anyways, I’m definitely delighted I found it and
    I’ll be bookmarking and checking back often! cheap flights yynxznuh

  26. Thanks for your personal marvelous posting! I actually enjoyed
    reading it, you may be a great author.I will be sure to bookmark your blog and
    will often come back later in life. I want to encourage you to
    continue your great work, have a nice morning!

  27. When someone writes an article he/she keeps the thought of a
    user in his/her brain that how a user can be aware of it.
    Therefore that’s why this paragraph is amazing.
    Thanks!

  28. It is appropriate time to make some plans for
    the long run and it’s time to be happy. I have learn this publish and if I may I wish to suggest you some fascinating things or suggestions.
    Maybe you can write next articles relating to this article.
    I desire to read more things about it!

  29. Hey there! I’ve been reading your website for some time now and finally got the
    bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out from Huffman Tx!
    Just wanted to tell you keep up the good job!

  30. I do not even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was
    good. I do not know who you are but definitely you’re going to a famous blogger if you aren’t
    already 😉 Cheers!

  31. Acrylic Bubbler Bong 27CM.
    Yes, Apple Will Eventually Make a Foldable Phone, But Dear God, No, It Will Not Be This One.
    Мы обнаружили, что в вашей сети доступ к YouTube устанавливается через стороннее незарегистрированное приложение. Использование таких приложений может привести к негативным последствиям, в том числе установке вредоносного ПО, несанкционированному доступу к вашим данным и быстрому расходу заряда батареи.
    https://cannabisgreenbook.org/glass-bong-diffuser.html
    https://cannabisgreenbook.org/how-to-invest-in-hemp-farms.html
    https://cannabisgreenbook.org/is-there-nicotine-in-blunt-wraps.html
    3. CANDLES, INCENSE, ESSENTIAL OIL DIFFUSER. Short Brass Bat.

  32. The average amount of urine in milliliters needed for a drug test is 30 milliliters. This amount can vary, for example, tests done for employees of the U.S. Department of Transportation require 45 milliliters of urine for a test.
    Description.
    Use these small double-walled glass bowls to present beautiful canapГ©s, amuses bouches and pre-desserts. Alternatively, use these double-walled glass bowls to serve sauces or side dishes with main meals.
    https://cannabisgreenbook.org/dab-pen-attachment.html
    https://cannabisgreenbook.org/how-to-build-a-homemade-bong.html
    https://cannabisgreenbook.org/can-taking-hot-dabs-kill.html
    1 large zipper storage bag Cotton swabs Metal tongs with rubber pads Towel. Specifications.

  33. Normally I do not read post on blogs, but I wish to
    say that this write-up very compelled me to try and do it!

    Your writing style has been surprised me.
    Thanks, very great post.

  34. Step Three: Technique.
    The Cranberry Juice Drug Test Method Explained.
    King Tut Strain’s Psychoactive Effects.
    https://cannabisseeds101.com/blueberry-cbd.html
    https://cannabisseeds101.com/how-to-lower-your-tolerance-to-weed.html
    https://cannabisseeds101.com/does-cannabis-help-tourettes.html
    Breeders and seed producers harness Blueberry’s finest traits; high potency, strong yields and aroma and colouration to develop some outstanding blue marijuana strains that not only look great but also offer a potent, super sweet smoke. Step 1: Cut Out the Pipe.

  35. Howdy just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your article seem to be running off the screen in Ie.

    I’m not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do
    with browser compatibility but I figured I’d post to let you know.
    The design and style look great though! Hope you get the
    issue fixed soon. Thanks

  36. So many other things we want, you guys have choice. (Sort item by quality for ex )
    2010 — Added endorsement from Dr. Harriet Hall.
    MALL HOURS Regular Mall Hours: Monday-Saturday 10:00 am – 9:00 pm Sunday 1:00 pm – 6:00 pm.
    https://coloradomedicalmarijuana.net/should-cbd-oil-be-refrigerated.html
    https://coloradomedicalmarijuana.net/washington-state-cannabis-license.html
    https://coloradomedicalmarijuana.net/eating-marijuana-stems.html
    Hemp has been cultivated on a global scale for thousands of years. The oldest documented evidence of hemp cultivation is a rope, which dates back to 26,900 BCE, found in today’s Czech Republic. LIVINGSTON, NJ — The following news release comes courtesy of a Livingston Patch community member. Learn more about posting announcements or events to your local Patch site here.

  37. Where you can, try and open up a window while you smoke.
    Once you’ve finished, rinse and dry all surfaces completely—if you leave items wet, they’ll just rust again! You may want to prime and repaint things like bicycles, lawn furniture, or any surface that will face continuous exposure to wet weather. Also be sure to check bikes (especially the chains) for any damage deep rust might have caused before you start using them again.
    If you’ve noticed tiny white bugs in soil that you have dug into or disturbed, then it’s time to take action! Here’s what to do about an infestation.
    https://marijuanadetox.biz/pipe-tobacco-subscription.html
    https://marijuanadetox.biz/pukinbeagle-quartz-banger.html
    https://marijuanadetox.biz/hemp-door-mats.html
    Cbd oil vape pen starter kit free. Your access to this service has been limited. (HTTP response code 503)

  38. Creamy or Crunchy Peanut Butter for Dogs?
    As dogs age, they’re more prone to developing joint conditions, particularly osteoarthritis (OA) and arthritis, says Patrick Mahaney, DVM, CVA, owner of Los Angeles-based California Pet Acupuncture and Wellness (CPAW) Inc. And though the conditions have similar names, there’s an important distinction between the two.
    「Our research shows that innovative recognition programs, such as those delivered through A chievers, can create breakthrough improvements in employee engagement and performance through the dynamics of transparent, peer-to-peer feedback and recognition,」 said Josh Bersin , Chief Executive Officer and Founder, Bersin & Associates. 「Such solutions can help drive employee engagement, retention, alignment, and business results.」
    https://themarijuanateaparty.org/cool-weed-containers.html
    https://themarijuanateaparty.org/tipping-weed-delivery.html
    https://themarijuanateaparty.org/beginner-cannabis-growing-kits.html
    Superdrug Stores PLC is registered to sell medicines. Affiliated Hospitals.

  39. I’d like to thank you for the efforts you have put in penning this blog.
    I really hope to view the same high-grade content by you in the
    future as well. In truth, your creative writing abilities has motivated
    me to get my very own blog now 😉
    write papers for me
    https://onlineessayforyou.com/

  40. Thank you for another informative website. The place else may
    I am getting that kind of info written in such a perfect
    means? I’ve a venture that I am simply now operating on, and I have been at the look out for such information.

  41. Great blog! Do you have any recommendations for
    aspiring writers? I’m hoping to start my own website
    soon but I’m a little lost on everything. Would you
    propose starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid option? There are so
    many options out there that I’m totally overwhelmed ..
    Any tips? Appreciate it!
    argument essays
    https://buyessayscc.com/