捕足馬會鬼盤

發佈於 由 otaker

平日投注在足球為樂，就當做個善事。然而這個遊戲引人入勝之處是考眼光，是你的好還是對面的莊家操盤手好呢？

坊間有所謂「鬼盤」之說，「鬼盤」沒明確定義，較為普遍的說法就是大熱反而受讓，即是說主客和的賠率中較低的反而受讓。近期在歐霸盃就有一個明顯例子：

愛華頓取勝的賠率比阿波羅利馬素的高,但是讓球主客和的波盤還是主隊受讓一球，較直觀的想法就是操盤手覺得要吸引賭客購買阿波羅利馬素的受讓盤，讓錢都走向讓球主客和的主，因為客隊讓球，只入一球也未夠，直接打擊賭客的「入市意欲」，另一方面，莊家可能純粹因為平衡賭盤的金額，是單純的避險行動。

以這場球賽而言，已出局的阿波羅利馬素與愛華頓都沒有爭勝的原動力，而愛華頓的領隊更去了做手術，從陣容來講也是放上二線球員，成為冷門也尚算合理。然而只是出動英超二線成員的愛華頓，基本實力也比來自塞浦路斯的對手高兩三班，這個基本因素可能就是操盤開出「鬼盤」的原因。

最後操盤手沒有錯，愛華頓大勝三比零，如果在開賽前投注客隊賠率為3.7倍，讓球主客和客隊為7.75倍。

說到底，只看一場比賽都只是個別事件。我們來分析數據，從馬會2016年7月10日到2017年12月1日17000場比賽中，當中有404場是「鬼盤」。我們用R軟件去分析:

有一場比賽取消，當主隊受讓主客和主隊勝率為38.1%；當客隊受讓主客和客隊勝率為39.8%。

策略１：主客和買對家

平均成本投注客隊147次，主隊256次，投注客隊基本上打成平手，而投注主隊則大蝕48.4% ,然而此策略還比主客和買熱門優勝(不作詳述)。

策略２：讓球主客和買熱門

讓球主客和的熱門客隊已顯示為正數，策略２整體上還倒輸3.33% 。如果以莊家超過10%的抽水(果汁)來講，已經是不錯。

策略３：亞洲讓球盤買對家

這個策略給予1.4%回報，因為這類亞洲盤的抽水比較少，作為賭客也會較容易以適當的策略取勝。

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