簡單的賠率反查器

足球因為肺炎疫情幾乎全面停止,韓國聯賽首先復賽,賠率追蹤器亦隨之復活,望各位在餘下的賽程旗開得勝。

所有足球莊家的交易員的電腦都會有一個簡單的反查器,就是你們在賠率追蹤器看見的引申入球及引申球差。

有讀者問及我怎樣做出這個反查器,首先,反查器是基於用家(主要是莊家)的數學模型,我在這裡介紹的是以普通的泊松(Poisson)分佈的模型為基礎,外國與本地的莊家一般都會同時參考二項式(Binomial)分佈模型及負二項式(Negative Binomial)分佈模型,以此為基礎作出一些調整,分野大都在走地盤反映出來,而賽前的參數的結果基本上都大同小異,所以只講簡單泊松分佈的特例。

用戶可以把賠率手動輸入到綠色的格裡,然後在黃色格內試出誤差最少的引申入球及引申球差的數值,就能作出簡單的分析,右邊的矩陣是列出不同入球組合的概率,這個山寨版沒有Solver的功能,不能完全自動找出引申入球及引申球差,若有VBA經驗的用家可以作出簡單的修改就能達到預期效果。

眼利的用戶也許察覺到這個與賠率追蹤器有細微的分別,原因是作者用了一個有少許不同的方法計算入球及球差,這裡不作詳述了。

我們提供了一個簡單的下載路徑:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRFaQ4C-e8Lr8yaI5Dkfs66Yre28mwTv1wOjZQ1rL9i_wq11_dsNrp7KXNmiLME-TR8vUtBQ0oHF9KY/pub?output=xlsx

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