賭波懶人法:往績

兩隊的對賽往績,是最易應用的下注參考方法,但網上不少賭波達人,已明言往績意義不大,甚至從不參考。

亦有人認為,往績也值得參考,特別是,要看以往亞洲盤或標準盤的盤路,如主隊多數主場勝,但若細看亞洲盤,往往要讓得較深,或半一或一球,而目前的盤口,主隊僅要讓平半或平手,甚至反受讓,應視為不利盤口,故可判斷應下注客隊,反之亦然。

這種參考往績的方法,有以下情況不宜採用:

  • 次級聯賽:例如日乙、英冠等,因為每季有球隊升班,也有球隊降班,變化較大,其往績很可能是幾年前,參考價值不大
  • 讓球盤一般讓得過深的聯賽:例如愛沙尼亞、拉脫維亞、烏克蘭、保加利亞、卡塔爾、阿聯酋、科威特、波利維亞、泰超等等,隨時讓三、四球,其特徵一般是 i)入球多,ii)較次要的國家聯賽,iii)該聯賽組成的球隊較少。如拉脫維亞隨時要讓三球,若下一次讓三球半,其實分別不大
  • 大落飛/大回飛
  • 球員變化大的聯賽,如澳聯

 

試查看近期例子:

成功個案

布拉加輸多嬴少,之前有曾讓過士砵亭半球,但仍要輸。但若計之前兩場,主要受讓分別一球及半球,2018年4月1 日,主僅受讓平半,已嬴足盤。

到2018年9 月25日的賽事,已變成平手盤,結果布拉加又收足全個盤。

不過,布拉加這兩三年已躋身葡超Big Four,買中主也不太難。

 

失敗個案

 

拉素作客羅馬全要受讓,2018年9月29日的比賽,終盤為平主中水,按之前的說法,理應下注拉素,結果主勝3-1。

 

 

這種參考往績方法,成效極一般,不宜過份依賴。

 

 

圖片取自網絡,包括飛彩體育、雪緣園

 

賭波懶人法:往績” 有443條評論

  1. “拉素作客羅馬全要受讓,2018年9月29日的比賽,終盤為平主中水,按之前的說法,理應下注拉素,結果主勝3-1。”

    往積受讓,有贏有輸。 這個9月29日的比賽,羅馬主隊不再受讓,平手盤,不就是看好羅馬,要買羅馬了嗎?

    1. 賠率的計算,不計落飛回落,是莊家以數學公式計算,故假設是最能反映當時情況。
      但如文章言,若以往績參考 (按以上文章的思路),據目前的統計,五大聯賽中,意甲成效很差,僅比英超及西甲好一些;德甲成效最好。另外,蘇超就幾乎可以買相反 (不鼓勵以此作投注決定)

      「拉素作客羅馬全要受讓」是指拉素一直受讓,現平手盤,應視為羅馬現已讓不起。不過賽果未盡人意,又或者說,參考往績無大幫助,如上文所言

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