簡單足球賠率計算 – 總入球

數據分佈

為簡單起見,我們分析了馬會2015年11月21日至2017年6月24日的29923場賽事的總入球數字﹐當中平均每場賽事總入球為2.685,有13000多場賽事總入球為2球或3球(如圖所示)。

總入球0123456789101112總數
231653967089657043452463112041115049 83329923

 

Poisson模型

假設90分鐘內入球率是常數,Poisson模型作為博彩用的基本數學模型是非常直接及利於溝通。這個模型只有一個參數(\(\lambda\))而公式十分簡單:

\(P\left(k | \lambda\right) = \frac{\lambda^k\exp\left(-\lambda\right)}{k!}.\)

假設一場比賽平均有2.685球入球,那麼零入球的機會是

\(P\left(0 | 2.685\right) = 0.06822119.\)

換言而知,如果一場比賽預期入球為2.685,只有6.8%機會最後會以0-0結束,轉化為賠率則為1/0.06822119 = 14.6582倍,通常莊家會在0球之中再打折扣(大概為85折),所以賠率最終會是10-13倍。

 

入球大細

如果以2.5球作參考的話,入球大細盤口的概率是

\(1-P\left(0 | \lambda\right)-P\left(1 | \lambda\right)-P\left(2 | \lambda\right)\) 及 \(P\left(0 | \lambda\right)+P\left(1 | \lambda\right)+P\left(2 | \lambda\right)\)

如果預計入球為2.8,入球大細的概率會如下:

  • 大: \(1-P\left(0 | 2.8\right)-P\left(1 | 2.8\right)-P\left(2 | 2.8\right) = 0.5305463 (公平賠率1.88)\)
  • 細: \(P\left(0 | 2.8\right)+P\left(1 | 2.8\right)+P\left(2 | 2.8\right) = 0.4694537 (公平賠率2.13)\)

如果莊家跟你是有同樣看法,把公平賠率再除以1.08﹐大細賠率應為1.74(大)及1.97(細)。

 

引申入球

如果要比較莊家與投注者的意見分野,就要比較引申入球,我們把最新賠率資訊都放在賠率追蹤器中,如下圖塞爾維亞對巴西一樣,馬會開出1.65/2.1 – 2.5的大細賠率,根據簡單的Poisson模型,估計出他們評估賽事為有預期2.926球入球,如果你認為預期入球為2.7球,就應該要投注在[細]的選項中,反之亦然。

簡單足球賠率計算 – 總入球” 有860條評論

  1. 你好,在偶然機會下發現這個網頁,很多資料都很實用,多謝無私的奉獻,賠率追蹤器對分析賽事真的很有用,引申入球和引申球差對於大細球的判斷很有重要的啟示,因我的excel 不太好,介不介意提供這二個計算方法的程式呢?我想番查往績,再看看還有在那方面可以得到啟示,謝謝你的網頁

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